Expected general economic environment

As in the previous years, geopolitical conflicts continue to shape the expected general economic environment. In addition to the ongoing physical conflicts and wars, the protectionist and unpredictable tariff policy being pursued by the United States under President Donald Trump also threatens to trigger global trade wars that could hamper overall economic growth, even though the EU and the United States agreed to a trade deal.

After the German economy got off to a strong start in 2026, the growth and inflation forecasts have deteriorated significantly since the end of February 2026 in the wake of the Iran war, in particular the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the associated rise in energy prices. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has now lasted longer than initially expected. The erratic US tariff policy is also having a noticeably dampening effect on German exports. However, home-grown issues are also weighing on business sentiment, particularly because reforms are only making slow progress and are being overshadowed by disagreements within the coalition government. The further course of the Iran conflict remains unclear, and the pending reforms in Germany harbour the potential for conflict. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to open again soon and oil and gas prices recede, the effects of the rise in energy costs will continue to be felt for some time to come. The subdued consumer and investor sentiment will likely keep purse strings tight for the time being. The only sources of encouragement are government spending and fiscal programmes relating to infrastructure and defence. Against this backdrop, the German economy is only expected to grow by just under 0.75% in 2026. In 2027, real gross domestic product could grow by 1.25%, if the Iran war comes to an end and a more resolute approach to reforms is taken. The inflation rate has been edging towards 3%, particularly because energy prices have risen significantly. This will continue to drive up costs, even though the fuel tax cut initially slowed the rise in prices. However, if the trend assumed here were to continue, the inflation rate would soon pass its peak. The annual average for 2026 would then amount to just over 2.5%, before returning towards 2% in 2027. This forecast entails considerable risks. It remains to be seen how the US-Iran conflict will develop. A further prolongation of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would further reduce growth prospects and heighten the risk of inflation. Doubts are also mounting that the coalition government will show the resolve needed to implement the announced structural reforms and utilise the special borrowing facilities for additional investments (Source: Hamburg Institute of International Economics [HWWI], 8 June 2026).

On the pitch, Borussia Dortmund finished the 2025/2026 season in second place in the Bundesliga with 73 points, qualifying directly for the lucrative league phase of the UEFA Champions League in the coming season. Borussia Dortmund has thus qualified for an international cup competition for the seventeenth time in a row, and the eleventh time in a row in the prestigious UEFA Champions League, since the 2010/2011 season. However, the club traditionally pursues a more conservative approach when factoring success on the pitch and any associated earnings contributions into the forecast. Borussia Dortmund expects to reach the round of 16 of the UEFA Champions League in the 2026/2027 season. As well as setting the course for sporting success, Borussia Dortmund has also made a material contribution to earnings at the beginning of the 2026/2027 financial year with the transfer of player Karim Adeyemi to FC Barcelona.